Pantera Capital compares current bitcoin rally with 2017

Huge profit potential: Pantera Capital compares current bitcoin rally with 2017

  • Pantera has predicted the January 2021 bitcoin price in April 2020.
  • The firm quotes Mark Twain: „History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes.“
  • Pantera sees Bitcoin peaking at around $115,000 in August 2021.
  • The „Pantera Blockchain“ letter for January 2021 also looks at its Bitcoin post-halving predictions and the value of Ethereum.

In the latest newsletter, Pantera Capital gives itself a bit of a pat on the back for accurately predicting the price of bitcoin in January 2021 in April 2020. It also looks of Corona Millionaire at the fundamental differences between the 2017 bubble and the current situation.

Pantera Capital began its January newsletter by looking at Bitcoin’s price movements since the May 2020 halving. After explaining the theoretical impact of the halving on Bitcoin’s supply and price, the firm presents the correlations to its predictions.

Simply put, they more or less came true

The market lagged Pantera’s predicted price by up to 15 weeks in the summer of 2020. However, by the end of December, the market price of bitcoin (Go to buy bitcoin cheap guide) was in line with the prediction. Moreover, by mid-January, the projection was behind by one week.

The next date, February 15, 2021, has a projected price of $45,268. The chart shows prices through August 1, 2021, with a peak price of $115,212 at that time.

This time it IS different – and also not

After pointing out the similarities of Bitcoin cycles based on supply and pricing, Pantera looked at the differences between the current boom and the 2017 bubble. In particular, the authors point to the dominance of the „now proven“ Bitcoin and Ethereum in this run. Together, the two now account for 86% of market volume, up from about 50% in 2017.

Moreover, the market understands the environment better this time. In the previous run, the other half of the market volume was „mostly non-functioning tokens“. Recalling the hype around ICO projects at the time, a scathing assessment follows. „Obviously it’s impossible to come up with 50 brilliant ideas every week.“

Is Ethereum undervalued?

The third big issue for co-CIOs is the value of Ethereum. Joey Krug notes that some Bitcoin-related data points to an imminent turnaround for Ethereum.

For example, Bitcoin dominance is at the upper end of its range, which could lead to a rotation to Ethereum. However, he cautions against comparing BTC and ETH too much, „as digital gold and DeFi are two different things.“

At the same time, Krug notes that Ethereum is low on P/E multiples. Therefore, the case for Ethereum is high.

How high? Based on transaction fees, the current implied P/E multiple is 79. However, „the underlying usage is growing 25x (total value in DeFi) – 100x (DEXs) year over year.“

Bitcoin whales mobilize over 95,000 BTC in 24 hours

Discover the accelerated pace that Bitcoin whales have had in the last 24 hours. More than 95,000 BTC have been mobilized! What does it mean?

If you thought you’d seen it all with Bitcoin, wait until you see what the whales have done in these 24 hours. At the time of writing, there are about 77 operations that yield a total of 95,884 BTC transferred by Bitcoin whales. They have definitely come out, but with what strategy, trend or motive? Find out.

As this article is being written, there are whales moving their BTCs around non-stop. Proof of this can be found in Whale Alert’s constant updates. Between January 4th and 5th, 2021, 41 and 36 operations have been performed with BTCs respectively. Here is a summary table about it.

Bitcoin dropped $6,600 in a matter of hours, but it seems that the bulls didn’t care too much

Bitcoin whale trend analysis for the last 24 hours
Summary table of Bitcoin whale activity during the last 24 hours. Source: Whale AlertSummary chart of Bitcoin whale activity for the past 24 hours.

According to the summary, the highest percentage of cryptomonies have moved between unknown wallets and from exchanges to unknown wallets. In other words, BTC sales are not predominant, and on the contrary, whales seem to be taking liquidity and supply out of the market. With this notorious influence, Bitcoin may have some pressure to increase.

In these 24 hours, Bitcoin whales have introduced only 13,701 BTCs to the exchanges and market, while they’ve taken out 28,346 BTCs. That’s a difference of 14,645 BTC. Therefore, it can be concluded that supply cannot supply demand, since there is a considerable deficit. This is something that we have been noticing since institutions have turned to investing in BTC, and thus the bullish race has taken off until taking Bitcoin to new highs.

However, something also notable is that 50.11% of the total mobilized has been among unknown portfolios. Probably institutions or exchanges that seek to bring together the BTCs they hold or have. The important thing is that they do not seem to have any intention of selling it in the near future.

What has happened to BTC in this period of time?

In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has increased by 4.95%. Since the beginning of 2021 it has grown by 16.59%. It has also reached US$ 34,435.42, but at the time of writing it’s worth approximately US$ 33,868.85. The interesting thing is that during January 4 it experienced a slight setback, which led BTC to touch US$ 29,000, but this did not last long.

According to CoinMetrics, the average commission paid per transaction has been US$ 9.39 in the last 24 hours. This seems amazing considering the millionaire movements of the whales, which in total have managed to exceed 95,000 BTC. If we multiply that amount by the price BTC has at the moment we think you would see many zeros on the right.

Impressive, isn’t it?

The higher-than-average spot volume, even over the last month, is helping to push BTC’s price up. The signs of exhaustion that appeared in December were absorbed through a brief consolidation phase. In addition, there are no major signs of active ’selling‘ at the moment.
What can we expect from the big players in the crypt world?

Since December 31st, Bitcoin’s real volatility has risen again, from 55.5% to 63.3% on Monday, an increase not at all uncommon in recent times. But this is something that traders are following.

„From a technical standpoint, things have been overbought for a while,“ said Andrew Tu, an executive with the quantitative trading firm Efficient Frontier. „The overall trend is still upward and it seems unlikely that this will change, although the pace may not be as it was during the holiday season.

Mike Novogratz sanoo, että Bitcoinia ostavat laitokset ajavat Bitcoin-härän yli 30 000 dollarin

Vuonna 2020 muistetaan ehdottomasti Bitcoinin institutionaalisen käyttöönoton vuosi. Institutionaalista asiakaskuntaa käsittelevien eri yrityslaitosten raportit osoittavat sijoittajien olevan erittäin kiinnostuneita, kun he etsivät edelleen vaihtoehtoisia sijoituksia tähän hankalaan taloudelliseen aikaan.

Galaxy Digitalin perustaja ja toimitusjohtaja Mike Novogratz ovat ilmaisseet samanlaisia ​​mielipiteitä toteamalla, että laitoksilla on paremmat mahdollisuudet ostaa tällä hetkellä liikkeessä olevaan lippulaiva-salaukseen, mikä nostaa sen hintaa ja lopulta polttoainetta nykyiselle Bull Runille.

BBC World Newsin haastattelussa Bitcoin-härkä Novogratz totesi, että hallitukset ympäri maailmaa painavat rahaa pandemian torjumiseksi ja „fiat-rahan alentaminen“ ruokkivat Bitcoin-härkäajoa, mutta tärkeämpi tekijä tässä voi olla institutionaaliset pelaajat, jotka parveilevat salaukseen.

Novogratz lisäsi, että suuret instituutiot ovat muuttaneet näkemyksiään Bitcoinista viime vuosina, mikä saattaa vaikuttaa maailman johtavan kryptovaluutan tarjontaan.

„Nyt näemme PayPalin kaltaisia ​​paikkoja – 340 miljoonalla asiakkaalla – palvelemassa Bitcoinia ja myymällä Bitcoinia [yhdessä] suurten vakuutusyhtiöiden kanssa Yhdysvalloissa“, Novogratz sanoi. „Kun instituutiot muuttavat, tarjontaa ei vain ole paljon […] Siellä on paljon yli 21 miljoonaa miljonääriä.“

Bitcoin – institutionaalinen kryptovaluutta

Samanlaisia ​​mielipiteitä toisti myös makrosijoittaja Raoul Pal, joka totesi, että ei ole mahdotonta, että Bitcoinin hinta nousee „400 000 dollarin ja 1,2 miljoonan dollarin välillä“ tämän vuoden loppuun mennessä, jos nykyinen suuntaus jatkuu.

Pal oli ilmoittanut marraskuussa, että 98% hänen nestemäisestä nettovarallisuudestaan ​​muunnettiin Bitcoiniksi ja Ethereumiksi, ja lisäsi, että hän „ei vieläkään omista riittävästi“.

Novogratz itse on muuttanut näkemystään siitä, kuinka suuren osan sijoittajan salkusta tulisi muodostaa Bitcoin. Marraskuussa toimitusjohtaja sanoi, että Bitcoinin haltijoiden on investoitava 3% Bitcoiniin ja pidettävä sitä viisi vuotta. Luvut nousivat viime kuussa, kun Novogratz kannusti uusia sijoittajia sijoittamaan vähintään 5% Bitcoiniin, koska „Bitcoin ei palaa nollaan“.

Vuoden 2020 aikana monet suuret instituutiot ovat nousseet Bitcoin-trendiin. Suuret nimet, kuten liiketalousyritys MicroStrategy, joka on sijoittanut yli 1,2 miljardia dollaria, ja Massachusettsissa toimiva vakuutusyhtiö MassMutual panostavat suuresti Bitcoinille.

Viime kuussa rikkaan isän köyhän isän myydyin kirjailija Robert Kiyosaki paljasti olevansa Bitcoinin uskovainen ja totesi, että kolikko ylittää 50000 dollaria vuonna 2021.

Kirjoitushetkellä Bitcoin on pudonnut hieman alle 30000 dollarin.